Back from blog vacation and glad to be back.  Tiger’s 4th straight PGA Tour win (and 6th win in six events including the Target Challenge and Dubai Dessert Classic) at the Accenture Match Play was not only impressive but fun to watch.  This is shaping up to be a historical season.  It really feels like Tiger could win the Grand Slam this year.

We now move to the Florida Swing from the West Coast Swing as the next four tournaments will be played in the great state of Florida.  And just as the West Coasters seem to do better on the West Coast (Phil, Quinney come to mind) the Florida Swing is ripe for Florida players to shine (Austin, DiMarco, and last week’s Mayakoba winner Gay). 

The Honda Classic
PGA National Champion Course – Palm Beach Gardens, Florida

Mark Wilson prevailed in a four way playoff last year for his first PGA Tour victory.  You may remember Boo Weekley (Florida born) coming from out of nowhere to almost win this event, only to miss a 3 footer for par and eventually the playoff.  Ouch.   Also losing in that playoff was U of Florida ulum Camilo Villegas.  Are you starting to see the Florida connection here?

PGA National is a straight forward course with lots of water, sand and tough rough.  Read accuracy over distance, G.I.R. over Putts Per Round.

The top two players (by the odds makers) in the field this week are Ernie Els and Justin Rose, both of whom are struggling.  Els was the only #1 seed to get knocked out in the first round of Match Play last week and Rose was also ousted in the first round (not to mention a missed cut at the Northern Trust).  If history in this event is any indication I would stay away from both of these players in fantasy leagues.  Neither has finished Top 10 here in plenty of tries.

Using that same Top 10 barometer to scout for possible winners I will guess that Robert Allenby and Camilo Villegas will compete for the victory this week.  Allenby has two Top 10’s in the last four years.  Villegas has the one Top 10 last year, though only two events played, but is due to start heating up.  With only one missed cut on the season Camilo is playing consistent golf and it seems likely that his first win breakthrough would come in Florida on courses he knows.

We shall see.

And for some reason Sean O’Hair jumps out at me this week.  He has two starts here, missing the cut last season and finishing T17 in 2005.  Sean has finished no better than T49 on the young season but started playing well (four straight Top 20’s) around this same time last year. 

Won’t Win:  Ernie Els, Justin Rose

Could Win:  Camilo Villegas, Robert Allenby

Sleepers:  Sean O’Hair, John Merrick

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This entry was posted on Wednesday, February 27th, 2008 at 3:18 pm and is filed under 2008 PGA Previews, Honda Classic. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.