AimPoint PGA Tour Picks

Fantasy Golf Picks

I’m giving myself points for picking winners.  Hopefully my picks can help you win your fantasy golf league this season.  My goal is to get to 111 points for the season, or the equivlant of picking a Top 3 finisher or better each week.

Winner = 10 points

2nd Place = 5 points

3rd Place = 3 points

Top 10 = 1 point

2009 Fantasy Golf Picks Total:  71 Points

2009 Fantasy Golf Picks Weekly Average:  2.45 Points

Last week: 

At one point early Friday morning Villegas and Kelly were tied for first and I was looking like a genius.  But of course that was Friday.  By the time Saturday rolled around I was no longer a genius (though a little drunk) but I did manage to get 1 point for Kelly’s Top 10, while Villegas dropped off again during the weekend and O’Hair missed the cut. 

What a disjointed tournament, with almost daily weather delays.  Luckily for Nathan Green they were able to finish the tournament, which looked in doubt early on.  It was Green’s first PGA Tour win, after a few near misses.   

This week: 

There’s no way to sugar coat things this week.  Tiger absolutely dominates this event.  No sleepers, no suprises.  All three of my picks have played well at the Buick Open and are past winners.  With only two weeks until Glory’s Last Shot, you can bet there will be a “major” feel in Michigan this weekend.  Expect some must see golf T.V.

1. Tiger Woods

As I predicted a few weeks back, Tiger did not play well at the Open Championship, missing only his second career cut in a major.  That trend will not continue.  Tiger had never played Turnberry before.  What a difference a few weeks make.  In eight career starts at the Buick Open, Tiger has finished no worse then 11th with two wins and two runner ups.  Combined with coming off an embarasing missed cut in his last start = Tiger win.  Book it.

 2. Jim Furyk

#15 in the FedEx Cup standings, Jimmy also has a history of success here with eight Top 10s, including a win (2003), in fourteen career starts.  But even more impressive, no missed cuts in that span.  Aside from the U.S. (T33) and British Opens (T34), Furyk has four straight Top 10s.  While this tournament may feel like a major come Sunday, it will not play difficult like a major which bodes well for Jimmy.  There are lots of birdies on this course.  If he can shoot a low round on Thursday look out.  Even still I foresee at least another Top 10.

3. Scott Verplank

After a sluggish start (only one Top 10 before June), Verplank is heating up.  How about three straight Top 10s in his last three starts which includes a T8 last week?  And in that stretch he has shot 75% of his rounds in the 60s.  Verplank has played this event seventeen times since 1990, and even won way back in 1988 (I was 11).  He has not missed the cut here since 1999 to go with nine career Top 20 finishes.  While it certainly isn’t outside of the possibilities for a win, I think it is safe to assume he’ll contend all week.   

AimPoint PGA Tour Picks

Fantasy Golf Picks

I’m giving myself points for picking winners.  Hopefully my picks can help you win your fantasy golf league this season.  My goal is to get to 111 points for the season, or the equivlant of picking a Top 3 finisher or better each week.

Winner = 10 points

2nd Place = 5 points

3rd Place = 3 points

Top 10 = 1 point

2009 Fantasy Golf Picks Total:  51 Points

2009 Fantasy Golf Picks Weekly Average:  2.04 Points

Last week: 

Mahan came through with a Top 10, while Kim finished just outside (T11) so just 1 point for me.  VJ shot a 66 on Thursday but came crashing down over the weekend shooting only 70 and 69 on ideal scoring conditions. 

Kenny Perry continues to amaze with his 5th win in thirteen months.  His goal to reach 20 wins doesn’t seem so far fetched now.  Another few wins this summer and odds would be in his favor to get there.  I’d love to see the Vegas line on his quest, though my various web searches have proven unsuccessful.

This week: 

Defending champ Anthony Kim looks to finish better then Tiger for the first time when they both play in the same tournament.  This is the rookie event on the PGA Tour, with just the third playing coming this week.  Don’t expect the low scoring and birdie fest that we saw last weekend.  Only two players have finished double digits under par here in two years. 

This is Tiger’s tournament and will be moving from Congressional in Washington D.C. to Philadelphia next season.  There is a decent field this week and I expect a bit of a major feel as we celebrate July 4th this weekend.  Happy 4th to all!

1. Paul Casey

Casey had a disappointing U.S. Open showing, missing the cut at +10 thru two rounds.  He has yet to play at Congressional but the old school course style suits his sharp iron play.  No longer a stranger to winning in the states, Casey has three wins this calendar year between the PGA and European tours.  Going on a hunch here, but expecting at least a Top 10.

 2. Boo Weekley

Last Thursday Weekley started his first six holes with six straight birdies.  If not for a 71 in round two, Weekley would have taken home his second Top 10 of the season.  He has only missed the cut three times this season, though his Money List standing would say otherwise (60th).  Quite frankly Boo needs a win.  A T12 finish here in 2007 mixed with a 65 last Sunday puts this week as his best opportunity to date to make it happen. 

3. Tiger Woods

Tiger has only played his own event once (2007) and amongst all the responsibilities of running a tournament managed to finish T6.  He has eight straight Top 10 finishes going back to the WGC-CA Championship and comes off a T6 finish at Beth Page two weeks ago.  That he didn’t win means one thing, he’ll be more then focused.  And that is a scary thought.  A Top 10 is guaranteed but I’m banking on an outright win.

AimPoint PGA Tour Picks

Fantasy Golf Picks

I’m giving myself points for picking winners.  Hopefully my picks can help you win your fantasy golf league this season.  My goal is to get to 111 points for the season, or the equivlant of picking a Top 3 finisher or better each week.

Winner = 10 points

2nd Place = 5 points

3rd Place = 3 points

Top 10 = 1 point

2009 Fantasy Golf Picks Total:  49 Points

2009 Fantasy Golf Picks Weekly Average:  2.23 Points

Last week: 

Sometimes I wonder how much of a Phil homer I really am.  Sure he’s my favorite golfer but I’d like to think I pick him when he’s got a shot to win, except I always think he can win.  After watching his play this weekend I’m going to go against my heart and you won’t be seeing his name in my U.S. Open picks.  His game right now does not appear worthy for Beth Page.

Another week with no points as Phil and Villegas did not impress.  Defending champion Leonard shot a dismal +6 in round one and missed the cut for just the third time in eleven starts in Memphis.

This week: 

Summer is just around the corner and the PGA season is just starting to get good.  With Brian Gay’s victory last weekend, there are now five golfers on tour with two wins in 2009.  Can you name the other four?* 

The rest of the golf world has caught up some while Tiger was away.  When you consider that Tiger (who was recently “slumping” with only one win and five straight Top 10s) may be just starting to figure out his adjusted swing, we may have another epic U.S. Open on the horizon.  Think about it.  Tiger has not been as intimidating on Sunday’s as in years past (see Players Championship or Quail Hollow),  so the door might be open for someone to step up and beat Tiger on the lead……on a Sunday………….at a major.  I would like to see it at least once in my lifetime.

1. Tiger Woods

That said, if Tiger gets out to an early lead this thing may be over before it’s over.  The last time the U.S. Open was at Beth Page Black in 2002, Tiger shot a R1 67 and never looked back, winning by three shots.  The last few years Tiger has gotten off to slow starts in majors only to charge back on the weekend.  Since 2005 El Tigre has only finished outside of the Top 10 in a major twice, a missed cut in 2006 at the U.S. Open and T12 at the 2007 Open Championship.  We all remember last year’s Open at Torrey Pines, one of the best ever.  So how could Tiger top 2008?  How about coming back from a four shot dececit on Sunday?  Tiger still has yet to win a major when trailing after 54 holes.  Whatever he has in store for us this weekend, I just can’t imagine a scenario where he finishes outside the Top 10, even if he hurts his knee.

 2. Tim Clark

To say Clark is close is an understatement.  He was looking his first career PGA Tour victory in the eyes just a few weeks back at Colonial, only to have his glance repelled  (the phrase may look weird now, but very well could soon become a popular sports cliche).  Nothing would be more rewarding for Clark then redemption at Beth Page.  He did not play here in 2002, but does have three Top 20s in the U.S. Open since 2003.  As long as he keeps knocking on the door, it’s bound to open.  This course requires patience, fairways and greens.  Currently 24th in GIR, if Timmy can stay near the top of the field in GIR this weekend he will fair very well.

3. David Toms

Toms is on fire.  He’s coming off a T2 last weekend and now has six straight rounds in the 60s, including a 65 last Sunday.  Already a major winner, Toms finished T45 at Beth Page in 2002 and has five Top 20 finishes at the U.S. Open this decade.  He’ll need to get off to a good start but if he does he has the experience to hang on when the conditions get nasty on Saturday and Sunday.   Don’t be suprised to see him at the top of the Leaderboard in the early going.

Sleepers:  Ian Poulter, Dustin Johnson

I should disclose that I will be placing a few bets myself this week.  I’ve been playing around with this awesome Golf Predictor the last few days and have found some super value bets in Poulter (66-1) and Dustin Johnson (125-1).  Both are longshots but I expect them to play well.  A few good bounces in their favor and who knows.

I would like to wish everyone a Happy U.S. Open Sunday!  I will be glued to the TV all week long.

*ZJ, Mickelson, Ogilvy, Woods