Last Week

Gary Woodland used an interesting mix of five birdies, three bogeys and a par on the back nine to win the Transitions Championship, his first career Tour victory. Earlier in the year, Woodland lost the Bob Hope Classic to Jhonattan Vegas in a playoff.

Three of my picks finished in the top-20, including Woodland. I’ve now hit three winners this season, all coming in the last six stroke play events. My Must Start, Nick Watney, finished T13 with two strong rounds and two poor rounds. Jonathan Byrd fell from 10th to T20th after shooting 3-over on Sunday. Bubba Watson and Retief Goosen T28, K.J. Choi MC.

This Week

The Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard is played at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Fla. The event is the Tour’s fourth and final stop on the Florida swing. Last year’s winner, Ernie Els, finished ninth or better in fairways, greens and putting on the course that was redesigned following the 2009 event.

Dustin Johnson

In last year’s event, Johnson entered Sunday T16 but finished T40 after shooting a 6-over 78. He currently ranks first in birdies, second in driving distance and 11 in greens. While he’s got all the skills to dominate this course, Johnson has struggled to close out tournaments. All things considered, DJ is a top selection, despite the risk-reward factor.

Hunter Mahan – Must Start

With three straight finishes of 25th or better, Mahan is one of the few players with a semi-consistent track record at Bay Hill. Over his last five stroke play events, Mahan owns three top-10s including a runner-up performance. He currently ranks 10th in birdies and 14th in All-Around Ranking. Make Mahan a key part of your lineup.

Gary Woodland

Coming off his first Tour victory, Woodland is feeling the March Madness. Prior to attending the University of Kansas on a golf scholarship, Woodland received a basketball scholarship to Washburn University. Over his last six starts, he’s been on fire with four finishes of sixth or better. Woodland ranks fourth in birdies and scoring averages, eighth in driving distance, 11th in putting, 15th in greens and 17th in All-Around. Starting Woodland is a slam dunk.

Kevin Na

Even though Na has missed three cuts this season, he also owns two top-fives and another top-20 finish this season. In his last two Bay Hill events, Na has finished T2 and T11. Besides that, he is currently first in putts per round and eighth in putting average. Recent history at Bay Hill is reason enough to reserve a spot in your lineup for Ka.

Webb Simpson

In his last five events, Simpson has finished 13th or better on four occasions, including a runner-up last week. He missed the cut last year at Bay Hill and T11 in 2009. Simpson doesn’t pack much off the tee but is solid everywhere else. He’s seventh in scoring, ninth in birdies, 20th in greens and 12th in All-Around.

Chris Couch

Last year at Bay Hill, Couch finished T4. He was third in greens and T7 in fairways. He enters with a T5 from last week, his second top-10 in three starts. Couch ranks third in putting, seventh in birdies, eighth in scoring and sixth in All-Around.

Have a fantasy golf question? Want my lineups for both Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Golf and Kerplookee? Follow me on Twitter @ericmcclung

AimPoint PGA Tour Picks

Fantasy Golf Picks

I’m giving myself points for picking winners.  Hopefully my picks can help you win your fantasy golf league this season.  My goal is to get to 111 points for the season, or the equivlant of picking a Top 3 finisher or better each week, based on the point scale below:

Winner = 10 points

2nd Place = 5 points

3rd Place = 3 points

Top 10 = 1 point

2010 Fantasy Golf Picks Total:  25 Points

2010 Fantasy Golf Picks Weekly Average:  2.27 Points

Think you can pick better?  Leave a comment with your 3 picks for the 2010 Arnold Palmer Invitational.  If you Beat The Expert in any week you will win a FREE 2010 Rotoff Golf Draft Kit (a $9.99 value) with one possible Grand Prize winner at the end of the FedEx Cup season.  See here for official BTE rules.

There was no outright weekly winner as both Brad and Craig got 6 points for picking K.J. Choi and Steve Stricker.  Nice job fellas.  McClung also picked Choi and increases his overall BTE lead.

Beat the Expert Leaderboard

Last Week:

Another dud for me.  It didn’t help that Vijay Singh withdrew early on Thursday before his scheduled tee time (Vijay has also withdrawn this week).  Geoff Ogilvy only managed one round in the 60s for a T28 finish.  Charles Howell III had zero rounds in the 60s and also finished tied for 28th.  I’m in the middle of a fantasy golf drought, which is no more evident then at Yahoo! where I’ve dropped more than 10,000 in ranking over the last month.  UGH.

This week:

Spring is here and the year’s first Major is almost upon us.  But before we jump ahead of ourselves to the return of Tiger, there’s a very good tournament being played this week.  Four of the World’s Top 10 golfers are in the field this week at Bayhill.  And as seems to be a trend on the Florida swing, Bayhill poses another challenge as one of the more difficult non-major courses.  The average winning score the last three years is a low -5.67.  This is a great practice course for Augusta and the API never lacks in Sunday golf drama. 

1. Zach Johnson

Zach Johnson has yet to crack the Top 10 this season but returns to a course where he’s had much success.  In six career starts ZJ has three Top 10s including a 3rd place finish last season.  He has also never missed the cut at Bayhill which is impressive for such a tough course.  Segment 3 is Zach’s best with 1 Win, 4 Bonus and 3 Top 10s over the last three years.  I expect at least another Top 10 this weekend.

 2. Sean O’Hair

It was a heartbreaker for Sean O’Hair last year, losing a five shot lead in the final round and finishing 2nd place to a charging Tiger.  This is easily O’Hair’s best event with a 2nd place and 3rd place finish the last two years.  If that trend continues he will be victorious come Sunday.  Outside of a WD in 2006, O’Hair has finished no worse then T14 at Bayhill.  He is coming off a missed cut at the Transitions but don’t let that phase you.  O’Hair always plays well at the API. 

3.  Nick Watney

I’m going all-American this week.  Nick Watney shot 65-67 last weekend enroute to his third Top 10 0f the year.  Better yet, Watney has just one missed cut on the season.  A streaky player that is finding more consistency over the last 12 months, he finished T4 at Bayhill last season and has made the cut three times in four career starts in this event.  If he can run up another streak of low 60s he not only will be in contention on Sunday but could very well win.

AimPoint PGA Tour Picks

Fantasy Golf Picks

I’m giving myself points for picking winners.  Hopefully my picks can help you win your fantasy golf league this season.  My goal is to get to 111 points for the season, or the equivlant of picking a Top 3 finisher or better each week.

Winner = 10 points

2nd Place = 5 points

3rd Place = 3 points

Top 10 = 1 point

2009 Fantasy Golf Picks Total:  20 Points

2009 Fantasy Golf Preview Weekly Average:  1.81 Points

Last week: 

After the first round Furyk was sitting at -6 and in 1st place.  Unfortunately for me (and my picks) he had to play three more rounds.  He followed his 65 with a 78 on Friday and never sniffed the top of the leaderboard on the weekend, just barely making the cut.  Among those that did miss the cut were Pampling and Calcavecchia.  Another shut out week.

This week:

One of the last of two tune ups before Augusta, the Florida Swing ends this weekend at Bayhill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.  Last year Tiger won by one stroke on a miraculous 25 foot putt on the 72nd hole.  It was his 5th straight win on the PGA Tour and it seemed 2008 would be the best of his career……

1. Tiger Woods

Tiger should rebound this week (and by rebound I mean win) at Bayhill where he has five career wins.  Through all his “struggles” this season he is still coming off a Top 10 at the WGC-CA Championship a few weeks back.  Before the season started this is the tournament I figured we would see Tiger’s 2009 return as he dominates at Bayhill.  That he got in two tournaments prior is just even more reason to go with Tiger this week.  Quite simply……he’s due.

 2. Vijay Singh

Vijay just may be due as well.  Quite similar to Tiger, VJ is also recovering from injury and always plays well in this event, having never missed the cut in 16 career starts!  That’s consistency.  And I need that consistency this week.  Singh has four straight Top 10s here that includes a win in 2007.  With only three golfers in the field ranked in the World Top 10 it’s a great opportunity for Singh to return to his FedEx Cup Champion form and maybe a final pairing showdown with #1 looms.

3. Bart Bryant

Sure, Bryant finished 2nd to Tiger here last year.  But even more impressive is in four career starts at Bayhill, he has finished no worse then 20th.  Bryant has struggled thus far in 2009, with his only Top 10 coming at the WGC alternate Puerto Rico Open.  I’m hoping his experience and track record will at least secure a Top 10 this week. 

‘Nother Half-Ass preivew this week.  “No time for love Dr. Jones.”

Arnold Palmer Invitational
Bay Hill Club & Lodge – Orlando, Florida

Will Win:  Tiger Woods

Sleepers:  Sergio Garcia, Zach Johnson, Lucas Glover

Preview

Wow. I was no where near picking the winners last week. Who could have predicted Mark Calcavecchia would hold on for the win? Certainly not me. Sergio was no where to be seen on Sunday’s leaderboard. It is obvious to me now that you are not coming here for my picks…….it must be my wicked charm that keeps you coming back.

Speaking of coming back (nice transition huh?), Tiger is back in the field this week at the Arnold Palmer (formerly Bay Hill) Invitational. Mr. Woods finds himself in a field chalk full of top golfers. Of the current Top 10 World Ranked, only Furyk and Scott are sitting this one out. Can Tiger keep his winning streak alive? Oh wait, the streak ended in Europe, or at the Match Play, er……does anyone know if the streak is still going? Tiger will most likely start a new streak.

Last season Rod Pampling bested Greg Owen by one stroke to get his first PGA Tour win since the 2004 International (sadly no longer a tour event, more on that later this season).

Arnold Palmer Invitational
Bay Hill Club & Lodge – Orlando, Florida

It will be interesting to see how OWGR #5 Henrik Stenson plays this week. Stenson is playing his first non Match Play event on the PGA Tour in 2007. You’ll remember that Stenson won the Accenture Match Play just a few weeks ago. Stenson has never played in this event and it’s safe to say is using the Florida swing to warm up for Augusta (less then 23 days, but who’s counting) where he could give Tiger a battle.

The usual suspects will be scattered on the leaderboard over the weekend. Phil, Ernie and VJ all have a shot. And certainly don’t forget about Calcavecchia. But truth be told it’s hard to look past Tiger’s four wins here (and all in a row from 2000 to 2003). I’m going out on a limb this week and picking Tiger to win.

Which means one of the Nationwide Grads will breakthrough for their first win.