AimPoint PGA Tour Picks

Fantasy Golf Picks

I’m giving myself points for picking winners.  Hopefully my picks can help you win your fantasy golf league this season.  My goal is to get to 111 points for the season, or the equivlant of picking a Top 3 finisher or better each week.

Winner = 10 points

2nd Place = 5 points

3rd Place = 3 points

Top 10 = 1 point

2009 Fantasy Golf Picks Total:  16 Points

2009 Fantasy Golf Preview Weekly Average:  3.2 Points

Last week: 

I’ve gone cold. Three straight weeks without a Top 3 pick, not that I thought my 16 points in two weeks would be the norm.  Paddy played ok but no where near great, Obi is still injured and withdrew (DOH!) and Kresge missed the cut. 

This week:

Fantasy Golf Note:  Three different courses will be in play this week through the first three rounds with the cut coming after round 3.  While all course averages were over par last season, Spyglass was the most difficult and Pebble the easiest, though high winds on any course could spell trouble.  You might want to make note after each round of when your golfers are playing on what course. 

1. Padraig Harrington

Deja Vu all over again.  Paddy has a T14 and T30 finish in his only appearances here.  And though he looked a little rusty at the difficult Torrey Pines South course, he is once again the top ranked golfer in the field this week.  Paddy should bounce back this week in a big way with at least a Top 10 and possible win.

2. Davis Love III

DL III has a long history at this event with 7 Top 10s and two wins going back to 1990.  Davis is having a great 2009 season, finishing T2 at the Mercedes last month.  And if not for a miserable 77 in miserable weather last Friday Love most likely would have had another Top 10 finish at the Buick.  DL’s experience in this tournament is a huge strength and expect him to be in contention late.

3. David Toms

Where have you been David Toms?  Toms does not have a great track record at Pebble Beach, missing the cut in three of his last four appearances (1999-2002) but you can’t argue with Toms play this season.  He has 2 Top 5 finishes in three starts thus far.  Look for Toms improved play to continue and don’t be suprised if he makes it three Top 5 finishes in four starts.

AHHHHHHHHH!  I hate it when Phil loses (in a playoff).  That is all I will say about that.</phil-homer-comment>

I don’t know if there is a better non-major tournament for Sunday drama then the FBR.  How about J.B. Holmes winning his second FBR Open title in three years?  For J.B. to come back and win after going in the water on 15 was beyond clutch.  It sure made for entertaining golf.

There will be lots of water in play this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to go with the biggest field (180) on the PGA Tour.  Pebble Beach Golf Links is the host course but everyone will also be playing at Spyglass Hill and Poppy Hills, with the cut coming after round 3.  Of the three courses Pebble Beach played the hardest last year, with Poppy Hills as the easiest, though all three course scoring averages were over par.

AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
Pebble Beach Golf Links (Host Course) – Pebble Beach, California

This tournament is a grind with the long rounds and multi-course play.  Look for past winners here to be on top of the leaderboard come Sunday.  Past winners include Phil, Oberholser, Singh and Tiger.  You can stratch off Tiger because he’s not playing and stratch off Vijah because he’s not playing well.  That said this is Phil’s tournament to win.  He’s won two of the last three years and after his play last week he looks to be in top form again.

Update:  As of Tuesday Aaron Oberholser has withdrawn and will not play.

In looking at Top 10 finishes here over the last few years Jim Furyk, Daniel Chopra (well I’ll count T11), and Tim Clark all have two.  Pat Perez finished 2nd in 2002 and looked impressive through the first two rounds last week.  It would not suprise me too see any of these players get the win. 

Could Win:  Phil, Jim Furyk

Sleepers:  Daniel Chopra, Tim Clark, Pat Perez

Preview

Ah, it’s Pebble Beach time! Pebble Beach is a great venue and one of my favorite tournaments outside of the majors. With the amazing coastal background and the celebrity antics, Pebble Beach is always entertaining. This tourny dates back to the late 30’s when it was hosted by Bing Crosby.

Last season Arron Oberholser won by five strokes over Rory Sabbatini. Oberholser is out with a back injury and will not be able to defend his title this season.

There is a big field this week and golfers will be playing on all three different courses in the first three rounds, with the top 60 plus ties advancing to the final round on Sunday. Look for Davis Love III to possibly be in the final group on Sunday. Love has won here twice, in 2001 and 2003.

Another two time winner (1998 and 2005) in the field this week is Phil Mickelson, but quite frankly I just don’t have faith in Lefty until his putting and iron play improve. Phil did a lot of strength training in the off season that is affecting his iron accuracy. Lefty will recover fine in time for Augusta, but I don’t see him being in contention on Sunday at Pebble Beach.

Mike Weir was in the final Sunday pairing last season, before shooting a 78 and finishing T3. He has finished in the top 10 here 6 out of 9 starts. (Vijay has a similar streak, finishing in the top 10 in 6 of his previous 8 starts on the Monerey Peninsula). Weir’s exceptional accuracy and short game (currently 22nd in GIR) could keep him in the running again this year. This also bodes well for Luke Donald (2nd in GIR) who finished T7 here in 2006.

Padraig Harrington (OWGR #9) is making his 2007 PGA debut at Pebble Beach. Interestingly, Paddy has never played in this event and has not played since finishing T5 at the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship on the European Tour in early January. Harrington typically doesn’t play on the PGA Tour until the Match Play Championships in late February so his being in the field this week is encouraging and tells me that he came to win. (Who doesn’t come to win, right?)

Another cool aspect of the Pebble Beach Pro Am is the celebrity draw. Look for shenagins from tournament regulars Bill Murray, Ray Ramano and Kevin James just to name a few. It’s always a lively atmosphere when the stars come out to play a little golf. Some lucky son of a gun is going to caddy for Camilo Villages this week. How cool would that be? Caddy tip for Camilo, “Do the Spider.”