AimPoint PGA Tour Picks

Fantasy Golf Picks

I’m giving myself points for picking winners.  Hopefully my picks can help you win your fantasy golf league this season.  My goal is to get to 111 points for the season, or the equivlant of picking a Top 3 finisher or better each week, based on the point scale below:

Winner = 10 points

2nd Place = 5 points

3rd Place = 3 points

Top 10 = 1 point

2010 Fantasy Golf Picks Total:  24 Points

2010 Fantasy Golf Picks Weekly Average:  3.00 Points

Think you can pick better?  Leave a comment with your 3 picks for the 2010 Honda Classic.  If you Beat The Expert in any week you will win a FREE 2010 Rotoff Golf Draft Kit (a $9.99 value) with one possible Grand Prize winner at the end of the FedEx Cup season.  See here for official BTE rules.

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Last Week:

It was another weekly win for me with my whopping 2 points.  Both Allenby and Villegas finished in the Top 10.  Villegas sat at -13 with a two shot lead early on in his third round and fell like a rock from that point shooting back to back 71s on the weekend.  Na made the cut but had a disappointing T53 finish.  I’m just 3 points off the lead (I’m gunnin’ for you McClung) and feeling confident that I will retain the #1 spot in the coming weeks.

This week:

The Tour returns to Florida, which means Augusta is right around the corner.  The first stop this week is PGA National and the Honda Classic.  Last year a relative unknown named Y.E. Yang got his first PGA Tour victory, a subtle foreshadowing of a major champion.  That Yang played well last week should not be glanced over, he would be 4th on my list this week if we were allowed to pick four.  This course always plays more difficult then the birdie fests of the West Coast Swing.  The average winning score the last three years is -6.67 which will make for some great Sunday drama. 

1. Robert Allenby

Don’t mess with success.  Three straight Top 10s here and four in nine career starts, that Allenby added another Top 10 to his resume last weekend is huge.  He is close, very close to getting his first PGA Tour win in almost ten years.  In five starts in 2010, he has finished no worse then T27.  Me thinks this could be a big year for Allenby, big as in “major.”  If he can stay hot he will no doubt be a force come Georgia. 

 2. Vijay Singh

Dare I?  If there were any time for Vijay to return to his old form it would be this week, in an event he has incredible success on.  A win, two 2nds and four Top 10s in eight starts with no missed cuts, this just might be what Vige needs though he has yet to play PGA National (since it became the host course in 2007).  I’m taking a big chance with this pick as Vijay has yet to crack the Top 10 in 2010 but I will also be redeemed when he gets his first this week. 

3. Scott Piercy

Piercy, in just his second year on tour, finished T8 last week in the AZ.  In his first career start at the Honda he finished T5 last year which went a long way in him retaining his card for this year.  If not for a 73 on Sunday we could be talking about Piercy as a first time PGA Tour winner.  Before that dreadful close, Scott had four straigt rounds in the 60s including a Saturday 65.  This is more of a sleeper pick in a spot where I could be using a big name player, but I’m sticking with my gut on this one.

AimPoint PGA Tour Picks

Fantasy Golf Picks

I’m giving myself points for picking winners.  Hopefully my picks can help you win your fantasy golf league this season.  My goal is to get to 111 points for the season, or the equivlant of picking a Top 3 finisher or better each week.

Winner = 10 points

2nd Place = 5 points

3rd Place = 3 points

Top 10 = 1 point

2009 Fantasy Golf Picks Total:  16 Points

2009 Fantasy Golf Preview Weekly Average:  2.0 Points

Last week: 

My picks came down to the Villegas/Ogilvy match.  Had Villegas had won he most likely would have made it to the final as he was on fire through the first two rounds.  It is great to see Ogilvy becoming the 2nd best golfer in the world, and I suspect someone who could beat Tiger in a Sunday final pairing.  Lets hope we get to see that this year.  Other than Villegas, only Donald made it past the first round, losing to Els on Friday.  Tiger did struggle as I predicted but it was exciting to have him back.  All in all it was must see Golf TV for the first two days that fizzled some on the weekend.

This week:

This event marks the start of the Florida swing.  Ernie Els defend with only two Top 10 OWGR in the field (Garcia and Villegas).  PGA National plays long for a par 70 at 7160 yards, with a spectacular 604 yard Par 5 18th. 

1. Camilo Villegas

Camilo only needed 26 holes through the first two days of Match Play, advancing to round 3 in dominating fashion.  He lost to the eventual winner Geoff Ogilvy that round, but missed several putts inside 6 feet that could have turned the Match in his favor.  Assuming that Camilo has been working on his putting this week, expect to see his name at the top of the Leaderboard all weekend.   He has never missed a cut here and finished T2 (lost in a playoff) in 2007.  As on of the top ranked golfers in the field he is a smart and safe pick this week.

2. Luke Donald (withdrew)

Like Villegas, Donald has yet to miss the cut here.  He finished 2nd last season (losing by one shot to Els) and won this event in 2006.  Just going on course history here Donald is a safe play this week, especially in Yahoo! leagues where the C group is thin.

3. Justin Leonard 

The 2004 Honda Classic champion, Leonard has struggled here the last few seasons with a T30 finish in 2008 and two missed cuts in 2007 and 2006.  Leonard was solid in Match Play, advancing to the quarterfinals where he lost a tight match to Ross Fisher.  Justin is slowing moving up the OWGR, currently sitting at 25th.  It’s a great opportunity for him to shine in a somewhat weak field. Expect a Top 10 finish.

Back from blog vacation and glad to be back.  Tiger’s 4th straight PGA Tour win (and 6th win in six events including the Target Challenge and Dubai Dessert Classic) at the Accenture Match Play was not only impressive but fun to watch.  This is shaping up to be a historical season.  It really feels like Tiger could win the Grand Slam this year.

We now move to the Florida Swing from the West Coast Swing as the next four tournaments will be played in the great state of Florida.  And just as the West Coasters seem to do better on the West Coast (Phil, Quinney come to mind) the Florida Swing is ripe for Florida players to shine (Austin, DiMarco, and last week’s Mayakoba winner Gay). 

The Honda Classic
PGA National Champion Course – Palm Beach Gardens, Florida

Mark Wilson prevailed in a four way playoff last year for his first PGA Tour victory.  You may remember Boo Weekley (Florida born) coming from out of nowhere to almost win this event, only to miss a 3 footer for par and eventually the playoff.  Ouch.   Also losing in that playoff was U of Florida ulum Camilo Villegas.  Are you starting to see the Florida connection here?

PGA National is a straight forward course with lots of water, sand and tough rough.  Read accuracy over distance, G.I.R. over Putts Per Round.

The top two players (by the odds makers) in the field this week are Ernie Els and Justin Rose, both of whom are struggling.  Els was the only #1 seed to get knocked out in the first round of Match Play last week and Rose was also ousted in the first round (not to mention a missed cut at the Northern Trust).  If history in this event is any indication I would stay away from both of these players in fantasy leagues.  Neither has finished Top 10 here in plenty of tries.

Using that same Top 10 barometer to scout for possible winners I will guess that Robert Allenby and Camilo Villegas will compete for the victory this week.  Allenby has two Top 10’s in the last four years.  Villegas has the one Top 10 last year, though only two events played, but is due to start heating up.  With only one missed cut on the season Camilo is playing consistent golf and it seems likely that his first win breakthrough would come in Florida on courses he knows.

We shall see.

And for some reason Sean O’Hair jumps out at me this week.  He has two starts here, missing the cut last season and finishing T17 in 2005.  Sean has finished no better than T49 on the young season but started playing well (four straight Top 20’s) around this same time last year. 

Won’t Win:  Ernie Els, Justin Rose

Could Win:  Camilo Villegas, Robert Allenby

Sleepers:  Sean O’Hair, John Merrick