Fantasy Golf Picks

Last Week

After missing the cut in two other starts this season, Johnson Wagner won the Mayakoba Golf Classic at Riviera Maya-Cancun, his second career victory on Tour. Just nine events into the season, three have been settled in a playoff round. Back in the States, Luke Donald steamrolled into the finals of the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship where he outdueled the new World No. 1 player, Martin Kaymer.

While my Match Play bracket didn’t fare so well, many of my Mayakoba picks hit the mark. Spencer Levin finished as the runner-up, losing in the aforementioned playoff. Brian Gay, my Must Start, and David Toms shared fifth with several others. J.J. Henry finished T19 while Richard S. Johnson finished T35 after matching Levin with a Sunday-best round of 65. A week after winning the Northern Trust Open, Aaron Baddeley missed the cut reminding us just how fickle the game of golf can be.

This Week

Starting in 2007, the Honda Classic was moved to the Champion Course at PGA National Resort & Spa. The highlight of the course is The Bear Trap, a series of three demanding holes (15, 16 and 17) that were designed by Jack Nicklaus. The challenging trio is capped off by the brutal par-3 17th that requires a tee shot over water that also surrounds the hole. Last year, the course ranked second in difficultly.

The fully-loaded field contains three of the top-four players in the world and half of the top-10. Strongly consider loading up on top European players in allocation formats. Several are very successful on this course and play a limited Tour schedule. That means you’ll be able to save starts for elite American players, like Matt Kuchar, for later on.

Luke Donald

In Donald’s last Honda Classic start, he set the course record with an opening round of 64 and went on to finish as the runner-up. A few weeks ago, he melted down at the Northern Trust Open with an 8-over 79 in the second round and missed the cut. Coming off a dominating performance en route to winning the Match Play Championship, Donald is back on track and totally locked in.

Graeme McDowell – Must Start

McDowell has finished third in each of his stroke-play tournaments of 2011, one on the PGA Tour and another on the European Tour. Last year, McDowell entered the final round in eighth-place before a 6-over 76 sent him tumbling to T31. Dating back to last year, the defending U.S. Open Championship winner has five straight finishes of 13th or better, including three top-fives.

Rory McIlroy

Over his last five stroke-play events on the European Tour, McIlroy owns an average finish of 7.0. However, his success in his tournament has been sparse: T40 last year and T13 in 2009. Since McIlroy qualifies as a lower-tier player in most formats due to limited winnings on the PGA Tour last year, the No. 8 player in the world is a fine bargain.

Charl Schwartzel

He’s never played in this event but Schwartzel has been on a tear over the last three months on the European Tour. In five stroke-play starts, the South African has a win, a runner-up performance and a total of four top-fives. Last year on the PGA Tour, Schwartzel had a pair of top-three finishes and five top-20s. Like McIlroy, check your format for a possible discount on a highly-ranked player.

Ben Crane

Prior to reaching the third round of the Match Play Championship, Crane finished 21st or better in all three stroke-play starts this season. While Crane skipped this event last year, he finished third in 2009 and T12 in 2008. On Tour, he currently ranks sixth in greens and 14th in birdies. Once again, Crane looks like a dependable selection.

Update: Crane withdrew on Tuesday along with Stewart Cink and J.B. Holmes. Put me down for Ian Poulter, even though he’s struggled so far in 2011. Expect some payback for his early exit while defending the Match Play Championship.

Vijay Singh

Over his last 18 rounds, Singh only gone over par once. He currently ranks fourth in scoring average. Last time out, he finished as the runner-up in the Northern Trust Open while leading the field in putting. A year ago, Singh finished T4 in his only Honda Classic start since the event changed venues. With two top-three finishes in his last three starts, look for Singh to keep rolling.

Have a fantasy golf question? Want my lineups for both Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Golf and Kerplookee? Follow me on Twitter @ericmcclung

AimPoint PGA Tour Picks

Fantasy Golf Picks

I’m giving myself points for picking winners.  Hopefully my picks can help you win your fantasy golf league this season.  My goal is to get to 111 points for the season, or the equivlant of picking a Top 3 finisher or better each week, based on the point scale below:

Winner = 10 points

2nd Place = 5 points

3rd Place = 3 points

Top 10 = 1 point

2010 Fantasy Golf Picks Total:  24 Points

2010 Fantasy Golf Picks Weekly Average:  3.00 Points

Think you can pick better?  Leave a comment with your 3 picks for the 2010 Honda Classic.  If you Beat The Expert in any week you will win a FREE 2010 Rotoff Golf Draft Kit (a $9.99 value) with one possible Grand Prize winner at the end of the FedEx Cup season.  See here for official BTE rules.

Beat the Expert Leaderboard

Last Week:

It was another weekly win for me with my whopping 2 points.  Both Allenby and Villegas finished in the Top 10.  Villegas sat at -13 with a two shot lead early on in his third round and fell like a rock from that point shooting back to back 71s on the weekend.  Na made the cut but had a disappointing T53 finish.  I’m just 3 points off the lead (I’m gunnin’ for you McClung) and feeling confident that I will retain the #1 spot in the coming weeks.

This week:

The Tour returns to Florida, which means Augusta is right around the corner.  The first stop this week is PGA National and the Honda Classic.  Last year a relative unknown named Y.E. Yang got his first PGA Tour victory, a subtle foreshadowing of a major champion.  That Yang played well last week should not be glanced over, he would be 4th on my list this week if we were allowed to pick four.  This course always plays more difficult then the birdie fests of the West Coast Swing.  The average winning score the last three years is -6.67 which will make for some great Sunday drama. 

1. Robert Allenby

Don’t mess with success.  Three straight Top 10s here and four in nine career starts, that Allenby added another Top 10 to his resume last weekend is huge.  He is close, very close to getting his first PGA Tour win in almost ten years.  In five starts in 2010, he has finished no worse then T27.  Me thinks this could be a big year for Allenby, big as in “major.”  If he can stay hot he will no doubt be a force come Georgia. 

 2. Vijay Singh

Dare I?  If there were any time for Vijay to return to his old form it would be this week, in an event he has incredible success on.  A win, two 2nds and four Top 10s in eight starts with no missed cuts, this just might be what Vige needs though he has yet to play PGA National (since it became the host course in 2007).  I’m taking a big chance with this pick as Vijay has yet to crack the Top 10 in 2010 but I will also be redeemed when he gets his first this week. 

3. Scott Piercy

Piercy, in just his second year on tour, finished T8 last week in the AZ.  In his first career start at the Honda he finished T5 last year which went a long way in him retaining his card for this year.  If not for a 73 on Sunday we could be talking about Piercy as a first time PGA Tour winner.  Before that dreadful close, Scott had four straigt rounds in the 60s including a Saturday 65.  This is more of a sleeper pick in a spot where I could be using a big name player, but I’m sticking with my gut on this one.

AimPoint PGA Tour Picks

Fantasy Golf Picks

I’m giving myself points for picking winners.  Hopefully my picks can help you win your fantasy golf league this season.  My goal is to get to 111 points for the season, or the equivlant of picking a Top 3 finisher or better each week.

Winner = 10 points

2nd Place = 5 points

3rd Place = 3 points

Top 10 = 1 point

2009 Fantasy Golf Picks Total:  16 Points

2009 Fantasy Golf Preview Weekly Average:  2.0 Points

Last week: 

My picks came down to the Villegas/Ogilvy match.  Had Villegas had won he most likely would have made it to the final as he was on fire through the first two rounds.  It is great to see Ogilvy becoming the 2nd best golfer in the world, and I suspect someone who could beat Tiger in a Sunday final pairing.  Lets hope we get to see that this year.  Other than Villegas, only Donald made it past the first round, losing to Els on Friday.  Tiger did struggle as I predicted but it was exciting to have him back.  All in all it was must see Golf TV for the first two days that fizzled some on the weekend.

This week:

This event marks the start of the Florida swing.  Ernie Els defend with only two Top 10 OWGR in the field (Garcia and Villegas).  PGA National plays long for a par 70 at 7160 yards, with a spectacular 604 yard Par 5 18th. 

1. Camilo Villegas

Camilo only needed 26 holes through the first two days of Match Play, advancing to round 3 in dominating fashion.  He lost to the eventual winner Geoff Ogilvy that round, but missed several putts inside 6 feet that could have turned the Match in his favor.  Assuming that Camilo has been working on his putting this week, expect to see his name at the top of the Leaderboard all weekend.   He has never missed a cut here and finished T2 (lost in a playoff) in 2007.  As on of the top ranked golfers in the field he is a smart and safe pick this week.

2. Luke Donald (withdrew)

Like Villegas, Donald has yet to miss the cut here.  He finished 2nd last season (losing by one shot to Els) and won this event in 2006.  Just going on course history here Donald is a safe play this week, especially in Yahoo! leagues where the C group is thin.

3. Justin Leonard 

The 2004 Honda Classic champion, Leonard has struggled here the last few seasons with a T30 finish in 2008 and two missed cuts in 2007 and 2006.  Leonard was solid in Match Play, advancing to the quarterfinals where he lost a tight match to Ross Fisher.  Justin is slowing moving up the OWGR, currently sitting at 25th.  It’s a great opportunity for him to shine in a somewhat weak field. Expect a Top 10 finish.

Back from blog vacation and glad to be back.  Tiger’s 4th straight PGA Tour win (and 6th win in six events including the Target Challenge and Dubai Dessert Classic) at the Accenture Match Play was not only impressive but fun to watch.  This is shaping up to be a historical season.  It really feels like Tiger could win the Grand Slam this year.

We now move to the Florida Swing from the West Coast Swing as the next four tournaments will be played in the great state of Florida.  And just as the West Coasters seem to do better on the West Coast (Phil, Quinney come to mind) the Florida Swing is ripe for Florida players to shine (Austin, DiMarco, and last week’s Mayakoba winner Gay). 

The Honda Classic
PGA National Champion Course – Palm Beach Gardens, Florida

Mark Wilson prevailed in a four way playoff last year for his first PGA Tour victory.  You may remember Boo Weekley (Florida born) coming from out of nowhere to almost win this event, only to miss a 3 footer for par and eventually the playoff.  Ouch.   Also losing in that playoff was U of Florida ulum Camilo Villegas.  Are you starting to see the Florida connection here?

PGA National is a straight forward course with lots of water, sand and tough rough.  Read accuracy over distance, G.I.R. over Putts Per Round.

The top two players (by the odds makers) in the field this week are Ernie Els and Justin Rose, both of whom are struggling.  Els was the only #1 seed to get knocked out in the first round of Match Play last week and Rose was also ousted in the first round (not to mention a missed cut at the Northern Trust).  If history in this event is any indication I would stay away from both of these players in fantasy leagues.  Neither has finished Top 10 here in plenty of tries.

Using that same Top 10 barometer to scout for possible winners I will guess that Robert Allenby and Camilo Villegas will compete for the victory this week.  Allenby has two Top 10’s in the last four years.  Villegas has the one Top 10 last year, though only two events played, but is due to start heating up.  With only one missed cut on the season Camilo is playing consistent golf and it seems likely that his first win breakthrough would come in Florida on courses he knows.

We shall see.

And for some reason Sean O’Hair jumps out at me this week.  He has two starts here, missing the cut last season and finishing T17 in 2005.  Sean has finished no better than T49 on the young season but started playing well (four straight Top 20’s) around this same time last year. 

Won’t Win:  Ernie Els, Justin Rose

Could Win:  Camilo Villegas, Robert Allenby

Sleepers:  Sean O’Hair, John Merrick

Preview

Luke Donald defends his title this week as the Florida swing begins at the Honda Classic. Donald won by two strokes over Geoff Ogilvy last year in shooting -12 for the week. This year the venue for this event changes to PGA National and marks the first time in twenty years that the Florida Swing has not started at Doral. Donald has a good chance to repeat this year, and is coming off a T17 at the Accenture Match Play.

Also T17 last week was Jim Furyk who should make some noise this week. Furyk has three top 10’s so far this season and has not finished outside of the top 20 in five events.

(Half-ass preview this week)