Last Week

After opening with two rounds of 62, David Toms blew a seven-stroke and appeared heading to another heartbreaker. But after missing a short putt to extend the playoff for THE PLAYERS Championship, Toms wasted no time in getting redemption. Toms would recover with an 83-yard eagle on 11 to move one stroke ahead of Charlie Wi for good. The defending champion of the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial, Zach Johnson, matched a Sunday-best round of 65 to finish fourth, his best finish of the season and third consecutive top-12 result.

It was a very nice week of selections. I had Toms, the winner, and Martin Laird, my Must Start, finished T10. Kevin Na was also challenging for a top-10, but a 4-over on Sunday sent him tumbling to T40. Jason Day, T31. Pat Perez, T62. J.B. Holmes withdrew late with an ear infection.

This Week

Dustin Johnson – Must Start

In his last two starts in the HP Byron Nelson Championship, Johnson has finished T7 and T4. In those eight combined rounds, he’s 21-under with only one round over par. However, Johnson has missed three cuts this season, already matching last year’s total. Despite the risks, DJ’s recent history in this event is too much to ignore. This season he currently ranks second in birdies, third in driving distance and 17th in greens.

Scott Verplank

In addition to winning the Byron Nelson in 2007, one year before the course layout was changed, Verplank finished T5 a year ago. His performance put him tied for first in greens hit and T10 in fairways. That type of accuracy is exactly what is needed to excel at TPC Four Seasons Las Colinas. This season, Verplank sits ninth in driving accuracy, 28th in All-Around Ranking.

Spencer Levin

A year ago, Levin finished T32 in the Byron Nelson, but there are signs he is due for a step forward. He was an impressive with his accuracy (T8 in fairways hit and T16 in greens) but struggled on the pair of par-five holes, particularly No. 7. This season, however, Levin is 15th in converting birdies or better on par-5 holes. He’s also eighth in scoring and 34th in greens.

Levin has withdrawn, so I’m replacing him with Justin Leonard. He’s finished 26th or better in three straight at the Byron Nelson.

John Senden

Although he missed the cut a year ago, Senden finished seventh at the Byron Nelson in 2009. Coming off a T8 at Colonial, the Australian is an attractive selection thanks to his skills off the tee. Senden is seventh in total driving, 10th in greens and 26th in scoring average.

D.A. Points

Despite missing two consecutive cuts, and three of his last four, Points warrants consideration this week. In the last two events at the Byron Nelson, he’s finished T7 and third. Earlier this season, Points won the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am and should get back on track this week. Despite the recent struggles, Points is 31st in total driving and 32nd in All-Around.

Brian Gay

Since 2006 at the Byron Nelson, Gay has finished 19th or better three times, including a pair of top-10s. Although he missed the cut in the other two events, he finished with a share of second a year ago. As mentioned, accuracy is a big deal on this course and Gay is currently ranked first in driving accuracy percentage. He’s also fifth in scoring and has only missed one cut all season.

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AimPoint PGA Tour Picks

Fantasy Golf Picks

I’m giving myself points for picking winners.  Hopefully my picks can help you win your fantasy golf league this season.  My goal is to get to 111 points for the season, or the equivlant of picking a Top 3 finisher or better each week, based on the point scale below:

Winner = 10 points

2nd Place = 5 points

3rd Place = 3 points

Top 10 = 1 point

2010 Fantasy Golf Picks Total:  36 Points

2010 Fantasy Golf Picks Weekly Average:  1.89 Points

Think you can pick better?  Leave a comment with your 3 picks for the 2010 HP Byron Nelson Championship.  If you Beat The Expert in any week you will win a FREE 2010 Rotoff Golf Draft Kit (a $9.99 value) with one possible Grand Prize winner at the end of the FedEx Cup season.  See here for official BTE rules.

We have a new Leader!  Bradness was almost perfect last week in picking Adam Scott (10 points) and Ernie Els (3 points) and his 13 total points are easily good enough for a second weekly win.  A little over halfway through the FedEx Cup season and the competition is heating up.  Excellent pickin’ Brad.

Beat the Expert Leaderboard

Last Week:

It wasn’t 13 points but I’ll take my 3 points for Ernie’s 3rd place finish.  Had they not made 18 unreachable  on Sunday who knows, maybe we’d be talking about another win for doublE E.  Bo Van Pelt wasn’t terrible with just one round over par all week, but was no where near the Top 10 (T28).   It was a rough homecoming for Justin Leonard, doomed by his first round 76 and finishing T65 with a MDF.  

This week:

It’s almost a shame that 2010 has to end.  In nineteen weeks we have seen not only some amazing golf but a resurgence of some of the Top golfers in the world.  First Ernie, then Jimmy, Anthony, Camilo and now Adam Scott getting back in the winner’s circle.  Ad in Rory and Timmy and it’s been one hell of a year for golf fans.  Everyone is stepping up their games in this, the year of the Falling Tiger.  I have a suspicion this summer will be incredible golf drama with Pebble Beach and St. Andrews on the horizon.  But before I start drooling on myself I’ll return my focus to Texas and the HP Byron Nelson Championship.

Not a spectacular field this week with only two golfers playing ranked in the World Top 20 but a great tournament none the less.  Legend Byron may be gone but never forgotten as Rory Sabbatini defends at (yet another) TPC course.  Weather permitting, expect to see more birdies then usual as the winning score here was -19 last year.

1.  Sean O’Hair

This is prime time for Sean O’Hair.  As in being one of the better golfers in the field it’s prime time for Sean to step up.  Three Top 25 finishes here in four career starts, including a runner up finish in 2005, the course definitely suits his game.  He’s been up and down this season with no Top 10s since week 1, but he is still ranked in the World Top 25.  On paper this looks like a no-brainer but you know how my picks go.  Take it or leave it.

2.  Rory Sabbatini

Rory shot 68-64-65-64 here last year.  Are you friggin kidding me?  That was good enough for a win and it was his second Top 3 finish here the last three years (3rd place in 2007).  Be warned that Rory is in a bit of a slump lately with five missed cuts in his last nine starts (ouch) but much the same as O’Hair, he should do well on a familiar course in one of the weakest fields of the season. 

3.  Brett Wetterich

Who?  Brett Wetterich put together his best four consecutive rounds in over two years at TPC San Antonio last week.  If not for a final round 74 it may have been Brett and not Adam that we’d be fawning over.  That’s a good sign for someone who has already won this event (2006) and has an AF of 35.2 all-time.  This is one of those “got a hunch” picks.  Most likely with my luck he’ll miss the cut, but I’d rather take the credit for recognizing a longshot.  That is of course if that longshot comes through.

AimPoint PGA Tour Picks

Fantasy Golf Picks

I’m giving myself points for picking winners.  Hopefully my picks can help you win your fantasy golf league this season.  My goal is to get to 111 points for the season, or the equivlant of picking a Top 3 finisher or better each week.

Winner = 10 points

2nd Place = 5 points

3rd Place = 3 points

Top 10 = 1 point

2009 Fantasy Golf Picks Total:  39 Points

2009 Fantasy Golf Picks Weekly Average:  2.05 Points

Last week: 

Mallinger held the 36 hole lead but faltered on the weekend to finish T47 and dropping his SOTTTP to 50%.  Ouch.  Campbell and DiMarco both made the cut but never got close to the top of the leaderboard.  I need a win soon or I’m gonna fall well off the pace of my season goal.

This week: 

This is not an easy tournament to predict.  Adam Scott won last season but I’m not touching him with a ten foot flag pin.  Phil is also in the field this week and while I could see him winning, I can also see him missing the cut for lack of focus.  So on that note lets get to the picks.

1. Charley Hoffman

Charley (with a y) has made more money at the half way point of 2009 ($1.4 Million) then he made all of 2008 ($1 Million+).  And even more amazing, he has yet to miss a cut in twelve starts.  After shooting a 70 last Thursday, he finished off with three straight rounds in the 60’s, including a seven under 63 on Saturday.  With his third Top 10 finish last week, expect Hoffman to continue in his consistency. 

 2. Davis Love III

I’ll be the first to admit I’m not as confident in this pick as I could be, but something about Davis jumped out at me for this week.  Though not having played here since 2002, Love has played every weekend at the Byron Nelson going back to 1990 and even finished T2 in 2000.  DL3 struggled at the Players a few weeks back but he has the game to win at this TPC Course.  Currently ranked 22nd in GIR%, he just needs his putter to heat up and we could see a run away winner.

3. Ian Poulter

What pink pants wearing golfer has finished in the Top 20 in all their starts on the PGA Tour (except for one) in 2009?  Did the blue bold writing above tip you off?  Poulter finished 5th at Quail Hollow and 2nd at the Players.  Outside of his missed cut at the API, he is on fire.  A win this week could solidify a major run this summer and I’ll go on record now (for all those near a sportsbook) that Poulter is a great value pick for both the U.S. and British Opens.  Heck, I’ll go on record now and say Poulter gets at least another Top 10 this weekend.

EDS Byron Nelson Championship
TPC Four Seasons Resort – Irving, Texas

Preview

I’m baaaaaaaaack. Took a preview vacation the last few weeks as my workload increased, plus I needed a few weeks to shake off the end of the “streak.” After facing my golf picking demons, I now feel fully refreshed and ready to pick nothing but winners for the rest of the season. Yes, the odds will be against me my friends, it will be tough going from here on out. But the golf season is far from over! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? ………………………………….

This week marks one of only two tour events named after a Hall of Fame golfer. (Bonus points if you can name the other……..yeah, two bonus points for you). Byron Nelson will no doubt be mentioned a lot this weekend, as he should be. Last September saw the passing of Lord Byron and he will not be in attendance here for the first time since taking over as host of this tournament in 1968. This tournament serves as a great reminder of a great man and a great golf legacy.

Last season Brett Wetterich got his first tour win, beating Trevor Immelman by one stroke.

EDS Byron Nelson Championship
TPC Four Seasons Resort / Cottonwood Valley – Irving, Texas

There’s a few of the big dogs in the field this week. Both Phil and Vijay will be in the hunt for sure and so could Sergio if he gets his putter to work. Quite frankly now is the time for Sergio to step up. He has long been considered one of the elite golfers, yet I don’t remember him winning a tour event in the last few years. Sergio has played well in this event, with a win in 04 and two top 10s in 01 and 99.

Flying somewhat under the radar since a somewhat disappointing Masters finish is Charles Howell III, who has only made the cut here twice in five starts. Howell is a darkhorse this week and I’ll look for him in the TV coverage on Sunday.

But being the homer that I am, I have to go with my boy Phil to win here for the first time since 1996. He’s had a few weeks off to recover from subpar performance at Augusta, and he changed his swing coach to Butch Harmon. Harmony.