Fantasy Golf Picks

Last Week

After two decades of playing the pro-am at Pebble Beach, Bill Murray finally left victorious. Actually, D.A. Points was the real story earning his first victory on Tour thanks to a 100-yard eagle on 14 to take the lead. Steve Marino entered the final round with a one-shot lead, but would finish T4 after going two over par.

If you recall, I had Points as a suggested pick at Pebble which gives me my first winner of the season. J.B. Holmes finished T13. Vijay Singh started off strong, but went over par in the final two rounds to finish T26. Over a dozen bogeys left Dustin Johnson T55. Brandt Snedeker couldn’t get past his opening round of 75 and missed the cut. Once again Tim Clark withdrew, this time due to a shoulder injury.

This Week

Half of the top-10 players in the Official World Golf Ranking will be headed to the classic Riviera Country Club for the Northern Trust Open. It’s one of the deepest fields we’ve seen this season, so there’s no reason to hold anything back. As always, we’ve got you covered with a mix of likely front runners and deeper picks.

Paul Casey

Making his first Tour start of the year, Casey figures to pick up exactly where he left off a year ago. Casey capped 2010 with consecutive top-five performances and four finishes of 12th or better over his last five events. Having captured a win on the European Tour in January, a British invasion is headed stateside.

Steve Stricker – Must Start

Over his last three starts at Riviera, Stricker has not gone over par and owns an average round of 68.2. In addition to a victory last year, he recorded a runner-up result in 2009 and a T11 in that time. With two starts this season, all eight of Stricker’s rounds have been under par (seven under 70) en route to finishes in the top five and top 10.

Luke Donald

Equally impressive over the last three years at Riviera, Donald was last year’s runner-up and has not finished worse than T6 since 2007. The Brit was seventh in scoring average on Tour in 2010, but has not played a competitive round since December. Outside of the layoff, Donald is about as safe as they come this week.

J.B. Holmes

A year ago, Holmes was the only player at Riviera to fire all four rounds in the 60s. He would finish T3, giving him three straight finishes of seventh or better at this event. Coming off finishes of T5 and T13 in his last two starts, Holmes is in an excellent position to extend his string of solid finishes.

Steve Marino

Despite coughing up a victory at Pebble Beach, Marino has already equaled his total of top five and top 10s from a year ago. In 2010, his two finishes in said categories came as a share of fifth at Riviera followed by a fourth-place finish at Pebble. The schedule may be flipped, but Marino has started 2011 in a similar strong fashion.

Fred Couples

Since 2006, Couples owns a pair of top-five finishes in four starts at Riviera. In his only Tour start this season, Boom Boom finished T14 at Waste Management Phoenix Open, but did not have a round over par. Consider Couples a very legitimate option among the low-tier players in salary cap and allocation formats.

Have a fantasy golf questions? Want my lineups for both Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Golf and Kerplookee? Follow me on Twitter @ericmcclung

AimPoint PGA Tour Picks

Fantasy Golf Picks

I’m giving myself points for picking winners.  Hopefully my picks can help you win your fantasy golf league this season.  My goal is to get to 111 points for the season, or the equivlant of picking a Top 3 finisher or better each week, based on the point scale below:

Winner = 10 points

2nd Place = 5 points

3rd Place = 3 points

Top 10 = 1 point

2010 Fantasy Golf Picks Total:  12 Points

2010 Fantasy Golf Picks Weekly Average:  3.00 Points

Think you can pick better?  Leave a comment with your 3 picks for the 2010 Northern Trust Open.  If you Beat The Expert in any week you will win a FREE 2010 Rotoff Golf Draft Kit (a $9.99 value) with one possible Grand Prize winner at the end of the FedEx Cup season.  See here for official BTE rules including Grand Prize information.

Beat the Expert Leaderboard

Last Week:

No one Beat the Expert last week.  My 5 points for Sneds‘ 2nd place finish was tops.  Bubba Watson was not impressive, one week removed from an almost win he misses the cut with a bad showing on the South Course at Torrey Pines.  Which brings me to Phil.  What the heck was that?  T5 thru 54 holes and starts bogey, bogey, bogey in the final round.  Disappointing indeed but something us Phil fans are used to.  I’ll take my 5 points which moves me into 2nd on the BTE Leaderboard.

This week:

The West Coast swing continues through Cali with a stop in La La Land and the historic Riviera Country Club.  Past champions here include Ben Hogan, Sam Snead, Byron Nelson and Hale Irwin.  Two time defending champ Phil Mickelson will try to get back on track in the best field of the young year, with four of the World Top 10 in attendance.  This will be our first look at both Jim Furyk (#5) and Padraig Harrington (#8) in 2010.

1. Phil Mickelson

Third times a charm right?  Lets forget one bad day (even though it happened to be the most important final round) and move on.  For three rounds last week Lefty was looking like he would get his first win in his first start and set the golf world on fire with something to talk about besides Tiger (BTW did you like CBS’ five minute opening monologue on Saturday?).  Despite what we saw this last Sunday lets not forget that Phil has won this event the last two years and finished 2nd in 2007 (losing in a playoff).  Phil will put in the work this week and anything outside of a Top 10 will be suprising for the World #2.

 2. Padraig Harrington

Paddy returns to the PGA Tour for his first start of the season.  In three career starts in this event he has two Top 10s and a missed cut coming in 2009.  He hasn’t played since November where he finished T4 on the European Tour’s Dubai World Championship.  Rust aside this is a good spot for Harrington to shine on a familiar course.  Might be too early for a win but look for Paddy to contend well into the weekend.

3. K.J. Choi

It was a down year for K.J. in 2009 with only one Top 10 coming here at the Northern Trust.  But so far so good for Choi in 2010.  Last week he finished just outside the Top 10 at Torrey Pines.  But most impressive is for Segment 1 over the last three years he has an average finish of 10th!  When you add in that he has NEVER missed the cut at Riviera with three Top 10s in nine career starts this one is a no brainer. 

AimPoint PGA Tour Picks

Fantasy Golf Picks

I’m giving myself points for picking winners.  Hopefully my picks can help you win your fantasy golf league this season.  My goal is to get to 111 points for the season, or the equivlant of picking a Top 3 finisher or better each week.

Winner = 10 points

2nd Place = 5 points

3rd Place = 3 points

Top 10 = 1 point

2009 Fantasy Golf Picks Total:  16 Points

2009 Fantasy Golf Preview Weekly Average:  2.3 Points

Last week: 

Toms and Paddy missed the cut and Love III only flirted with the lead in the 1st round.  It was dissapointing that the weather canceled the final round, I would have loved to see how Dustin Johnson and Mike Weir would have battled in the final group.  Dustin Johnson now has the same amount of career wins (in less starts) then Anthony Kim and Camillo Villegas.

This week:

1. Mike Weir

Weir missed the cut at Riviera last year but does have a good history at this event, winning back to back in 2004 and 2005.  Add in the fact that he finished 2nd last week and you have a great fantasy golf option for the week.  Weir is playing great golf right now and already has two Top 5 finishes in three starts in 2009.  Take advantage while he’s hot.

2. Lucas Glover

Glover has played this event twice (T22 last year, T33 in 2007) and is quietly putting together a solid PGA season.  Much like Weir I’m leaning towards current play with this pick.  Glover finished T3 in his last event (Buick Invitational) and has yet to miss the cut at Riviera.  A Top 10 this week for Glover is a very good possibility.

3. Robert Allenby

Rotoff Golf would like to welcome Mr. Allenby to the 2009 season.  This is Allenby’s first tournament on the young season.  He may be rusty but it’s hard to argue with Allenby’s track record here, three Top 10s in the last four years.  Allenby did play at Dubai (on the European Tour) in mid January so it will be interesting to see how he looks with a month away from golf.  Odds are though that he will play well on a course that he is very familiar with.

No one was more relieved last week at Steve Lowery’s win than me.  Afterall I did have Vijay on my “Won’t Win” list.  And I was right………….barely.  One (of the many) great things about the PGA Tour are the comebacks.  Steve Lowery, who had not won on the PGA Tour since 1994 was on no ones list to contend last week.  It will be interesting to see if he can keep his momentum going this week at the Northern Trust (formerly Nissan) Open.

This week marks the first PGA Tour event for several big names, including Paul Casey, Sergio Garcia, Retief Goosen, Justin Rose and Adam Scott.  Of those names Scott has the best track record here, winning in 2005 and finishing 2nd in 2006.  Notably absent from the field this week is Tiger, who has never won this event in eleven tries.  Sergio has also never won here, though coming in 6th last season, his best finish.

Northern Trust Open
Riviera Country Club – Pacific Palisades, California

Charles Howell III prevailed last season beating Phil in a playoff.  Howell plays well at Riviera, having lost in a playoff in 2003 and T6 in 2002.  With three Top 25 finishes already this season, Charles has an outside shot to defend his title, which has not been done since Mike Weir won back to back here in 03 and 04.  Howell currently ranks 24th in G.I.R % but will need to find his putter (currently 85 in Putts per Round) if he’s going to repeat.

G.I.R. is huge on this course and you will most likely find your winner in the Top 10 in G.I.R. for the week.  If the course stays dry (and no rain is in the forecast) expect to see some low rounds early. 

What Phil will show up this week?  His game is so inconsistent right now that I will make no predictions, except that he won’t win, and hope that he can prove me wrong.  I’m going to go out on a limb and say ZJ wins by a few shots over Adam Scott.

Won’t Win:  Charles Howell III, Sergio Garcia, Phil

Could Win:  Adam Scott, Rory Sabbatini, K.J. Choi

Sleepers:  Zach Johnson, Carl Pettersson, Jeff Quinney

Preview

What a difference a week makes. Did anyone think Phil would win at Pebble Beach? I know I didn’t. I was pleasantly suprised. Lefty looks to make it two in a row this week at Riviera. And what an incredible field it is. Eight of the Top 10 golfers in the world are in the field, including the first PGA events of the season for Ernie Els and Retief Goosen. Infact this week almost has the feel of a Major, minus one Tiger Woods. It would have been difficult for Tiger to continue his streak of seven this week, in an event he has never won, and a field of the worlds best.

Last season Rory Sabbatini won by one stroke over Adam Scott. Scott made a charge on Sunday but Rory was able to hold on. In his two times playing in this event Scott has one win and one runner up finish, though his win was only for 36 holes due to weather in 05. Look for Scott to be in contention on Sunday, as well as Goosen, Els and Mickelson.